Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Ecuador Using the Logistic Model

At the end of 2019, COVID-19 disease emerged in city Wuhan, China, and caused an outbreak unusual viral pneumonia. Being highly transmissible, this novel coronavirus has spread fast all over world. continues to challenge most developed countries search for effective strategy either prevent infection or avoid spreading disease. While several have managed contain COVID-19, Latin America continue report increase daily number infected people. Ecuador, particularly, became epicenter region during March April 2020. In context, present study shows a simple mathematical approach understand effect Ecuador (and some American such as Brazil, Peru, Colombia). The proposed method is based on exponential model, discrete logistic equation, differential model using one-year data from 1, 2020, February 28, 2021. This presents estimated growth rate coefficient (λ), total cases (N), midpoint maximum (t_0) well variability λ function time. high value λ=0.185 which decreases λ=0.014 λ=0.056 according models, respectively. An accurate people was found by analyzing whose (N~409 K) agrees with reported at May 2021, validating approach. How use current long-term prediction also discussed here. Most importantly, two important characteristics: (i) possible compared other time-consuming approaches, (ii) it can be used predicts its consequences countries, allowing revenue new decisions against Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-09 Full Text: PDF